This week in prediction markets news, covering Nov. 7–13, a wave of US federal lawsuits intensified the industry’s battle with state gambling regulators in Missouri and Arkansas, while a Louisiana judge temporarily blocked 10 prediction market operators. Meanwhile, tZERO secured approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a US derivatives exchange, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) backed the CFTC in a dispute over single-stock perpetual futures.
President Donald Trump also nominated two CFTC commissioners, potentially restoring bipartisan leadership to the agency after a lengthy period with just one commissioner. Elsewhere, Kalshi reportedly entered new funding talks at a $65bn valuation, just weeks after completing a $1bn raise at a $40bn valuation.
Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana legal battles intensify
Prediction market operators continued challenging state gambling regulators this week, with Polymarket US suing Missouri after receiving a cease-and-desist letter from Attorney General Catherine Hanaway. All six companies targeted by Missouri have now filed federal lawsuits. The state also escalated its fight with Novig, filing counterclaims alleging violations of federal and state laws.
In Arkansas, Polymarket and Crypto.com’s OG.com filed separate lawsuits seeking to block state enforcement following Attorney General Tim Griffin’s lawsuit against Kalshi last week. The US Department of Justice and CFTC also sued Arkansas on Nov. 12, arguing that federal commodities law preempts the state’s efforts to regulate CFTC-approved exchanges.
There was a temporary easing of tensions in Missouri, however, as officials agreed not to enforce state gambling laws against Kalshi while its federal case proceeds. The agreement does not apply to the other companies challenging the state.
The fight also expanded to Louisiana, where a state judge issued a temporary restraining order against 10 prediction market operators on Nov. 12, just hours after Attorney General Liz Murrill filed suit. Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood were among the companies ordered to stop offering event contracts to Louisiana residents without state authorization.
Trump nominates two CFTC commissioners after lengthy vacancies
President Donald Trump nominated two new CFTC commissioners on Nov. 12, potentially restoring bipartisan representation to an agency that has operated with just one commissioner for more than a year.
Nathan Anonick, a Republican Senate Agriculture Committee counsel, and Matthew Rowland, a longtime CFTC attorney who has worked with the committee’s Democratic staff, would join Chairman Michael Selig if confirmed. The appointments would bring the five-member commission to three members as it navigates major decisions on prediction market regulation.
The White House also nominated former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson and Steven Levine to the SEC, marking the administration’s first bipartisan nominations to both agencies.
Congress and Texas lawmakers turn attention to prediction markets
The growing reach of sports event contracts drew fresh attention in Washington, where a Nov. 11 congressional hearing on college gambling also examined prediction markets. Rep. Alma Adams (D-N.C.) argued that federally regulated sports contracts were undermining protections established under state gambling laws.
Meanwhile, Texas legislation proposed by state Rep. Salman Bhojani would restrict contracts involving violence, death, disease and other sensitive topics without explicitly prohibiting sports, political or cultural event contracts. The bill would also impose a minimum trading age of 21.
Separately, Texas lieutenant governor-elect Vikki Goodwin signaled openness to prediction market regulation in her first comments on the issue since the midterm elections.
Regulatory concerns extended into healthcare, with Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) questioning Kalshi’s pharmaceutical drug-development markets. Our examination of the contracts also found that medical researchers were raising questions about potential insider trading, the integrity of clinical trials and whether the products deliver useful forecasts.
Kalshi eyes $65bn valuation after midterm trading surge
Kalshi is reportedly seeking another funding round at a $65bn valuation, just weeks after completing a $1bn raise at a $40bn valuation. The potential increase of 62.5% comes amid surging trading activity. The company also ended Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory role after his investment firm, 1789 Capital, significantly increased its investment in rival Polymarket.
The fallout from the 2026 midterms continued, with a new analysis of Kalshi’s election trading finding that Election Day volume reached approximately $726.9m, nearly triple the comparable figure from the 2024 presidential election. Cumulative midterm trading had climbed to $3.17bn by Nov. 9.
Kalshi also launched a $1m research grants program offering funding for up to 50 independent projects studying election market accuracy, trading activity and comparisons with traditional polling.
Beyond elections, new consumer spending data showed card deposits to Polymarket US rising 495% between the first and third quarters, while Kalshi deposits increased 207%. Major traditional sportsbook operators recorded declines over the same period.
SEC backs CFTC as stock futures dispute deepens
The SEC weighed in on the legal challenge to CFTC-approved single-stock perpetual futures, filing a brief that disputed claims the CFTC had improperly bypassed securities regulation.
The SEC’s intervention supports the CFTC’s position on the regulatory process, although the agency did not take a position on whether the challenged exchange rule changes should ultimately be overturned.
Separately, Cboe expanded its Cboe Predicts offering with new binary options tied to the Russell 2000 Index, bringing small-cap equities into its growing selection of securities-based event contracts.
Kalshi also filed to sharply reduce minimum trade sizes across 58 single-stock perpetual futures contracts to just 0.0002 shares, allowing traders to take much smaller positions. The changes are scheduled to take effect Nov. 27.
tZERO, River Markets and Rails expand trading infrastructure
Another wave of regulatory and infrastructure developments highlighted the growing competition to support prediction market trading.
tZERO secured CFTC designated contract market approval on Nov. 10, following its October clearinghouse approval. The company plans to support event contracts, perpetual futures and other derivatives through an infrastructure-as-a-service model.
Meanwhile, River Markets affiliate River Finance secured futures commission merchant registration. CEO Oscar Levy told NEXTPredict.io that the institutional brokerage expects to begin accepting customer funds within weeks, adding custody and clearing-related capabilities to its existing services.
Rails partnered with Crypto.com to provide regulated US perpetual futures infrastructure for prediction market operators and other trading platforms. And Pyth Network added New York Stock Exchange data to its marketplace, expanding access to official equity prices for financial trading applications.
New sports platforms and AI tools reach traders
High Roller launched an iPhone app for its ROLR prediction market platform, following its October web debut. Our hands-on review of the app found it to be fast and easy to navigate, with markets spanning sports, politics, entertainment and other categories, although geographic restrictions continue to limit availability.
The company also announced an agreement with ProphetX to expand ROLR’s sports contract lineup. The arrangement depends on the registration of a new High Roller futures commission merchant subsidiary, which has not yet applied for approval.
Meanwhile, Prospect Markets launched its US sports prediction market platform, initially offering a limited lineup of NFL contracts through Crypto.com’s regulated infrastructure.
Artificial intelligence also entered the picture, with the launch of DOPE, an AI prediction market assistant. Our testing explored its ability to research markets and help prepare trades through conversational interactions, including some limitations encountered with its iMessage functionality.
More from NEXTPredict this week
• Gemini sees growth beyond sports contracts: Gemini reported $796,000 in Q3 prediction market revenue, up 52% from the previous quarter. CEO Tyler Winklevoss said the business could still thrive even if legal challenges prevent it from offering sports contracts, arguing that its future does not depend on any single market category.
• Illinois university builds prediction market: The University of Illinois’ Gies College of Business is developing a play-money prediction market to train students in trading and market-making. The platform is in beta testing, with broader access planned for January 2027.
• Prediction markets at a crossroads: Fiona Power, CCO at The Unit, examined five major questions facing the industry, from regulatory uncertainty and insider trading to the challenges of building sustainable businesses.
• Kalshi faces lawsuit over tribal partnership: A leadership dispute involving an Oklahoma tribe has produced litigation over a proposed prediction market partnership involving Kalshi.
• MLB prospect discusses debut and Phillies’ future: In an exclusive NEXTPredict interview, Philadelphia Phillies prospect Aidan Miller discussed his potential MLB debut, his development and the team’s outlook as Kalshi traders assess his chances of reaching the majors.
More PM news and notes
• DraftKings moves Seminole Tribe lawsuit to federal court: DraftKings removed the Seminole Tribe of Florida’s lawsuit to federal court on Nov. 9, arguing that its federally regulated exchange, DKeX, performs regulatory duties under CFTC oversight. The tribe’s lawsuit, previously disclosed in DraftKings’ earnings filings, alleges its prediction market and fantasy sports offerings violate Florida gambling laws. DraftKings argues that federal law preempts the claims.
• CFTC investigates Kalshi: Kalshi confirmed that the CFTC is examining its event-contract self-certification procedures, including submissions involving weather-related markets, CNBC reported Nov. 11. Kalshi described the issue as a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which never went live.
• Polymarket cuts staff and contractors: Polymarket laid off employees and reduced its contractor workforce, particularly in marketing, Front Office Sports reported Nov. 11. The company acknowledged personnel changes during a leadership reorganization but did not disclose the total number of positions eliminated.
• Ro Khanna calls for sports prediction market ban: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) called on Congress to ban sports prediction markets, arguing that the products undermine state and tribal gambling laws, divert tax revenue and pose risks involving addiction and consumer protection. His Nov. 10 comments did not accompany a newly introduced bill.
• Kalshi partners with Artnet on art contracts: Kalshi named Artnet its official art partner, with the art market data company providing information used to settle contracts tied to major auctions. Markets covering November’s New York auctions are already live, with additional offerings planned around Miami Art Week in December.
• CFTC delays AI computing futures: The CFTC extended its review of CME Group’s proposed futures tied to Nvidia GPU rental prices until Jan. 8, 2027, the Financial Times reported. The regulator raised concerns about potential manipulation and the reliability of pricing benchmarks. Kalshi and Polymarket have also advocated for regulated compute derivatives.
• Tribal groups back New York against Kalshi: The Indian Gaming Association, National Congress of American Indians and 27 federally recognized tribes filed an amicus brief Nov. 9 supporting New York regulators in Kalshi’s Second Circuit appeal. The groups argue that Kalshi’s interpretation of federal commodities law would undermine protections established under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
• Van Dyke case moves toward jury selection: Defense lawyers for Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the US Special Forces soldier accused of insider trading tied to a Venezuela-related prediction market, filed proposed jury-selection questions Nov. 9. The federal criminal case concerns alleged trading using sensitive government information.
• Robinhood event-contract volume keeps climbing: The brokerage reported 5.9bn event contracts traded in October, up 5% from September and 136% year over year. Average daily volume reached 190m contracts, up 135% from a year earlier.
A look at the week ahead
• Nov. 16 – Kalshi’s Missouri injunction reply due: Kalshi must file its reply in its federal lawsuit against Missouri as it seeks a preliminary injunction against state gambling enforcement. Missouri has agreed to hold off enforcement against Kalshi while the federal case proceeds, but the underlying legal dispute remains unresolved.
• Nov. 17 – Ohio responds to Polymarket lawsuit: Ohio officials must respond to Polymarket US’s preliminary injunction request in a federal lawsuit challenging the state’s authority to regulate sports event contracts. Polymarket’s reply is due Dec. 3.
• Nov. 18 – CFTC event-contract rule comments close: The comment period ends for the CFTC’s proposed rule explicitly including event contracts in the swap definition. Comments also close for the separate interim final rule excluding conventional sportsbook wagers and casino games from that definition. The latter rule has already taken effect.
• Nov. 18 – Kalshi midterm research grants deadline: Applications for Kalshi’s $1m election research program close at 11:59 p.m. ET. Researchers submitting qualifying ideas through X have until Nov. 20 to complete their application forms.
• Nov. 18 – Federal Reserve meeting minutes: The Fed will release minutes from its Oct. 27–28 meeting at 2 p.m. ET. Traders will be watching for clues about the central bank’s December interest rate decision.
• Nov. 19 – Webull Q3 earnings: Webull will report third-quarter results after the market closes, followed by an earnings call at 5 p.m. ET. The brokerage offers prediction markets through Kalshi, and any updates on event-contract activity or expansion plans will be worth watching.
• Nov. 20 – CFTC faces Utah in injunction hearing: A federal judge will hear the CFTC and Justice Department’s request to temporarily block Utah’s enforcement actions against Kalshi, including criminal charges against the exchange and its founders. The hearing is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET in Salt Lake City.
• Nov. 22 – Louisiana prediction market order set to expire: The temporary restraining order against 10 prediction market operators (see above) is scheduled to expire after 10 days unless extended. Louisiana obtained the order Nov. 12, and a preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled for Nov. 30.
NEXT week’s trading events
• Nov. 14 – UFC 334: Ciryl Gane faces Josh Hokit in the main event, with Kalshi pricing Gane’s victory at 66%, up three percentage points over the past day. Kayla Harrison is favored at 61% against Amanda Nunes in the co-main event.
• Nov. 14 – College football showdown: No. 15 USC visits No. 6 Indiana in a matchup between ranked teams looking to strengthen their postseason positions. Kalshi favors Indiana at 71%. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
• Nov. 15 – NFL in Germany: New England faces Detroit in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, with Kalshi giving the Lions a 58% chance of winning. The market had attracted just over $432,000 in volume as of Friday, a drop in the bucket compared to the $7.5bn NFL markets have cumulatively attracted this season so far, according to the ticker on Kalshi’s website.
• Nov. 15 – Spain hosts England: The two countries meet in Madrid to close their UEFA Nations League group schedule, following Spain’s 3-2 victory at Wembley in September. Spain has won all five group matches, and Polymarket favors the hosts at 57%, compared with 20% for England.
• Nov. 15 – Bengals and Steelers battle for AFC North: Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football, with both teams entering at 6-2. Kalshi favors the Bengals at 63%. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has surged to the top of the NFL MVP market at 33%, ahead of Josh Allen at 22%.
• Nov. 15 – Cape Verde presidential election: Voters in the West African island nation head to the polls Sunday, with Polymarket traders giving incumbent President José Maria Neves a 95% chance of reelection. Opposition candidate Joana Rosa trails at 3%. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is scheduled for Nov. 29.
• Nov. 16 – Grammy nominations: Nominees for the 69th Grammy Awards will be announced Monday, with Kalshi traders favoring Olivia Rodrigo’s you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love at 98% for an Album of the Year nomination. Other top contenders include Olivia Dean’s The Art of Loving (97%), Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl (91%) and Rosalía’s Lux (88%).
• Nov. 17 – Nvidia earnings amid CEO shakeup: Nvidia reports quarterly results Tuesday following Jensen Huang’s sudden resignation as CEO. CFO Colette Kress has taken over on an interim basis, but Polymarket traders favor longtime Nvidia executive Ian Buck as the permanent successor at 29%, followed by Kress at 14% and Arm CEO Rene Haas at 13%. The earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.
• Nov. 17 – Esports Awards: The annual awards ceremony takes place Tuesday in Miami, with Polymarket traders favoring Caedrel at 77% to win Esports Content Creator of the Year, ahead of defending winner Jynxzi at 16% and TenZ at 6%. The market has attracted approximately $96,000 in trading volume.
• Nov. 17 – Dancing with the Stars semifinals: Six couples compete for spots in the Nov. 24 finale, with Kalshi traders pricing a 34% chance that Maura Higgins will be eliminated, compared with 16% for Tatyana Ali. The market also gives a 42% chance that no one will be eliminated.
• Nov. 18 – Target earnings: The retailer reports third-quarter results Wednesday, with its earnings call scheduled for 8 a.m. ET. Kalshi traders give Target a 71% chance of reporting year-over-year comparable transaction growth above 3.5%, compared with 50% for growth above 4% and 31% for above 4.5%.
• Nov. 20 – NBA Cup group play: The tournament continues Friday with nine games, including Toronto at Detroit and Houston at Denver. In Kalshi’s NBA Cup championship market, San Antonio leads at 19%, followed by Boston at 17% and Oklahoma City at 16%.