MESA, Ariz. — The buzz around Aidan Miller continues to build.
The Philadelphia Phillies’ 2023 first-round pick is thriving in the Arizona Fall League, and while a bothersome back injury forced Miller to miss all but four games during the regular season, his performance here has many believing a Major League Baseball debut is on deck.
According to prediction market platform Kalshi, Miller has a 44% chance of making his MLB debut before May 1, 2027, and a 91% chance of debuting before Nov. 1.
The 22-year-old infielder is hitting .320 with an OPS of 1.027 through 15 Fall League games with the Surprise Saguaros. His on-base percentage of .547 leads the league.
“It was pretty much a full year, so I missed a lot of at-bats, a lot of reps I could have had,” Miller told NextPredict.io in an exclusive interview. “It’s great being out here and finishing the year out on a good note, getting the at-bats that I missed. Even playing third base a little bit, too. It’s been good.”
Miller said he’s felt no ill effects from the back injury during his stint in Arizona.
“I have a good routine and I know what gets me ready for the game with my back,” Miller said. “It’s not even a thought in the back of my mind when I go out there and play. It’s really nice to be able to do that, be able to go out there and play pain free.”
One of the bigger factors affecting Miller’s eventual debut is completely out of his hands.
The MLB collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, and Kalshi traders see a 34% chance of the 2027 season beginning before April 1. The season is scheduled to begin March 24, with a full slate of Opening Day games following March 25.
There is also a market on whether a new CBA will be agreed to before Dec. 2, with those odds at just 5% based on the dearth of positive news recently.
Miller shows elite pitch recognition in Fall League
While there are still many bargaining conversations to be had off the field, Miller’s performance on it keeps turning heads.
His plate discipline has been otherworldly in the Fall League, with 24 walks in 75 plate appearances.
“I have an approach every time I go to the plate, and I really stick to it,” Miller said. “If a pitcher dots three pitches on the corner and that’s not where I’m looking, then I’ll tip my cap. I’m pretty picky up there.”
Miller, normally a shortstop, is getting work at third base because it could be the position he plays next year in the big leagues.
Incumbent Alec Bohm is a free agent and not expected to return to the Phillies, while Trea Turner could get one more chance to stick at shortstop despite his weakening defense.
Miller said the move to the hot corner has come with some adjustments.
“I would say the biggest thing is it’s more reactionary,” Miller said. “You’re kind of like a goalie over there, whereas at shortstop you can create your own hops. Positioning is huge over there at third. I’m still getting used to some of the arm angles, and when you’re deep in the hole the throw is a little bit longer. Simple things like that. And getting more reps over there helps with that.”
The Fall League will wrap up this month, and Miller said he plans to continue practicing at third base this offseason so he’s at ease there in the spring.
“For sure,” Miller said. “That’s definitely something I plan on building into the offseason, getting more ground balls over there, just to be as comfortable as I can going into next year, if that’s where I eventually end up playing. We’ll see what happens.”
Miller: Big league role would be ‘awesome’
Miller is the Phillies’ No. 2-ranked prospect, according to MLB.com. Based on his Fall League performance, there is growing belief he can win an everyday role with the Phillies next season.
Miller was asked if he believes securing a job out of Spring Training is a realistic scenario.
“It’s really trying to take it one day at a time and see what happens,” Miller said. “If it does, that’s awesome. But if it doesn’t, I’ll be OK as well. I’m taking it day by day, and I’ll trust God’s plan.”
When asked if he thinks the lack of at-bats this year hurts his chances, Miller deferred to the decision-makers.
“It’s not really up to me,” Miller said. “That’s ultimately their decision. We’ll see what happens.”
The lack of a normal offseason could be to his benefit, since teams won’t be able to sign free agents during a lockout and could more strongly consider internal options.
Kalshi traders also see a greater likelihood of the 2027 regular season falling short of its full scheduled slate.
Kalshi puts the probability of more than 2,425 regular-season games being played in 2027 at 41%. A full MLB regular season consists of 2,430 scheduled games.
Miller on Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
If Miller locks down a role with the Phillies next season, he will join a lineup that includes two of MLB’s premier sluggers: Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
He has spent ample time watching both, either on television or up-close during Spring Training.
“I tried to pick their brains in Spring Training and watch all their tee routines when I couldn’t hit,” Miller said. “I tried to be in the cage as much as I could just to see what they do. They’re the ultimate pros. They have been in the game for so long. They know their swings and their bodies so well. They know what dials them in every single day to be ready for the game. They never take a rep off. It’s fun to be a fly on the wall and watch those guys hit.”
Schwarber was very open to doling out hitting advice when approached by Miller.
“Schwarber, when he was in the cage doing a tee drill, I asked him why he was doing that and he gave me a whole breakdown,” Miller said. “He stopped his hitting routine just to talk to me. As a fan of the game, it’s so cool to see that. He’s such a great, humble guy. He is incredible to be around and he wants everyone to be better. That’s what you need on a winning team.”
While Schwarber and Harper have long established themselves on the big league level, Miller is looking to take that step.
The Phillies certainly believe in him. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke glowingly of Miller last month, making it clear he is a major part of their long-term plans.
That was music to Miller’s ears.
“It means the world,” Miller said. “Even after missing out on a full year, to have that faith and belief in me, it’s motivation. It makes you want to get out there that much more (and perform), even though I really wanted to get out there already. It was really cool to see.”
Aidan Miller rookie card could be valuable
Card ripping has become increasingly popular, as collectors can now buy and open trading card packs virtually.
Rookie cards are always great finds, and a strong showing in 2027 could make Miller’s card a coveted one.
There is already a 2024 Bowman Draft Aidan Miller Rose Gold /10 PSA 10 Philadelphia Rookie POP 1 listed for sale on eBay at $1,799, and the card values could increase with more impressiveness from Miller on the diamond.
It’s shaping up to be a big year for Miller in 2027, and his Fall League performance has reminded Phillies fans that an impact bat could be just around the corner.