Prediction markets crossed $150 billion in combined lifetime trading volume in April 2026. What started as a niche corner of derivatives trading now spans eight distinct categories, from sports and elections to weather, crypto, and AI milestones.
Each category operates differently: different settlement sources, different liquidity profiles, different types of traders. This guide maps all of them. For each vertical, you will find how contracts are structured, what drives volume, and what kinds of participants tend to trade there.
Prediction Market Categories: What Traders Buy and Sell in 2026
Prediction markets hit a combined lifetime volume of $150 billion across Kalshi and Polymarket in April 2026, ending a seven-month streak of monthly growth. Monthly volume peaked at $25.7 billion in March 2026, then Kalshi posted $14.8 billion in April, up roughly 13%, while Polymarket recorded $10.2 billion, down about 9% month over month. Binance Research placed total industry volume at a record $31.2 billion in May.
The institutional story is accelerating alongside the retail one. In May 2026, Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest, valuing the company at $22 billion. Institutional trading volume on the platform had grown 800% over the prior six months, and annualized trading volume reached $178 billion.
Prediction markets are exchanges where you buy and sell contracts tied to verifiable future outcomes. Most contracts resolve as binary yes-or-no positions, settling at $1 if correct and $0 if not. You can exit before settlement. Your position trades continuously against other participants, not against the platform.
Available categories include sports, politics, elections, weather, economics, crypto, culture, and technology and science. What distinguishes each vertical is its settlement source, contract structure, liquidity profile, and the kind of edge that tends to be rewarded.
How Prediction Market Contracts Are Structured
In the United States, event contracts are classified as derivatives and fall under federal jurisdiction through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Kalshi launched publicly in July 2021, becoming the first regulated platform to trade directly on the outcomes of events and event contracts. Polymarket holds a separate CFTC designation as a Designated Contract Market for its U.S. product.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are gaining traction as trading and hedging tools on Wall Street. Operators set settlement terms before a market opens, and those terms are tied to a defined external data source. A weather contract resolves against an official reading from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. An election contract resolves against certified results. A sports contract resolves against a final score or verified statistic.
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Each contract price reflects the market-implied probability of an outcome. A contract trading at $0.63 implies a 63% probability. Prices shift continuously as new information enters and positions change hands.
Sports
Sports events now drive the majority of volume on regulated sports prediction markets. In May 2026, Kalshi’s biggest month of the year to date, sports trading volume reached $10.44 billion. Elections, the category that made Kalshi prominent, managed just $173.66 million that same month, roughly 60 times less.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become the defining event of the category’s growth. More than $344 million had been traded on Kalshi for the World Cup as of June 17, with more than $200 million of that volume coming since the tournament opened. The scale of the market relative to prior cycles is striking. During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the entire tournament volume at Polymarket was $138,000. The World Cup Winner market has crossed $1.71 billion alone, a roughly 12,000-fold increase in four years.
The two platforms approach sports differently. Kalshi leads at the game and series level, while Polymarket volume concentrates at the international tournament level. Sports has made up 80% of total trading volume on Kalshi and 39% on Polymarket since July 2024.
Participants include retail traders with domain or statistical knowledge, data shops, sports syndicates, and prop desks at financial firms. Settlement occurs against official league records and governing body results.
Sample contracts:
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win Game 2 of the NBA Finals?
- Will Myles Garrett record 20 or more sacks this NFL season?
- Will the NFL MVP be a quarterback?
Politics
Political prediction markets cover governmental outcomes that fall outside the electoral calendar. Legislation, executive actions, cabinet confirmations, judicial decisions, and geopolitical developments all fit within this category.
Polymarket dominates Kalshi in this market, with a 92.6% combined cross-platform political volume. Polymarket’s slate has been anchored by the US-Iran peace deal, the 2028 presidential nomination markets, and the 2028 presidential election.
Geopolitical contracts have drawn particular attention in 2026. The Strait of Hormuz crisis beginning in February 2026 produced a measurable spike in contract activity. A Kalshi market asking whether the U.S. government would confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life before January 30, 2029 had generated $24.5 million in trading volume by June 2026. As of April 2026, Polymarket reported more than 1,500 active political markets.
Sample contracts:
- Will the Federal Reserve chair be confirmed by the U.S. Senate?
- Will a specific bill pass Congress before a stated deadline?
- Will a ceasefire in a named conflict hold through Q3?
Elections
Election markets resolve against certified results. Interest is cyclical and accelerates sharply as major contests approach, including presidential cycles, primaries, and midterm election results. Even state-level elections generate meaningful volumes. Gubernatorial races and ballot initiatives in large states regularly produce active trading.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election was this prediction market category’s defining moment. Kalshi and Polymarket alone recorded a combined $4.2 billion in volume across that cycle. Political markets made up 90% of trading volume on Kalshi and 65% on Polymarket in October and November 2024, around the time of the U.S. presidential election.
In 2025, Kalshi signed formal partnerships with media outlets CNN and CNBC. Election prediction market prices are now routinely used alongside traditional polling as a gauge of voter sentiment. The model has roots stretching back to 19th-century election betting on Wall Street and gained academic credibility in 1988 when University of Iowa professors launched the Iowa Electronic Markets to test whether crowd-sourced contract prices could outperform traditional polls.
Sample contracts:
- Will Candidate X win the Democratic Senate primary?
- Will Republicans hold the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
- Will turnout on a named ballot initiative exceed a stated threshold?
Weather
These types of prediction market contracts offer some of the clearest settlement mechanics on regulated prediction platforms. Outcomes are objective, the data source is standardized, and resolution timelines can be as short as a single day.
Most contracts settle against official readings from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. You can trade daily high and low temperatures at the city level, monthly snowfall and rainfall totals, and hurricane landfall events. Monthly snowfall in New York City is among Kalshi’s most actively traded weather markets. Polymarket runs daily high-temperature contracts for more than 30 cities worldwide. A Kalshi market on average monthly rainfall in Los Angeles had recorded nearly $76,000 in volume by early June 2026.
Weather markets are a small share of overall volume on both platforms, but they attract traders who prefer shorter resolution windows and objective settlement criteria free from the political or regulatory risk that affects other categories.
Economics
Economic prediction markets track macroeconomic data releases, monetary policy decisions, and broad output measures. The category covers Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, GDP reports, and energy prices.
Kalshi’s economics activity has a domestic makeup, driven by LA Mayor, California Governor, and House control markets. Polymarket listed 161 economy markets as of early May 2026, with 27 concerning Federal Reserve rate actions. Crypto markets did $2.02 billion on Kalshi in May 2026, while a gas price contract on Kalshi tied to the ongoing Iran conflict had accumulated more than $265,000 in trading volume by early June 2026.
Sample contracts:
- How many Fed rate cuts will occur in 2026?
- Will the June CPI print above 3%?
- Will second-quarter GDP show positive growth?
Economic contracts are a clear illustration of what practitioners call the wisdom of crowds. Participants with varying levels of expertise are pricing the same outcome with real capital behind their positions. Institutions are increasingly using event contracts for hedging risks that conventional derivatives often overlook.
Crypto
Crypto is the largest vertical by raw market count on Polymarket. Crypto has made up a significant share of Polymarket volume since July 2024, with sports, politics, and crypto together accounting for 90% of global trading volume on the platform. Contracts span price thresholds, ETF regulatory decisions, protocol milestones, and exchange-specific outcomes.
The SEC has delayed the launch of six event contract ETFs, keeping regulatory attention on this category. That overhang has not dampened trading activity. Crypto-native retail traders, on-chain analytics firms, and hedge funds with dedicated digital asset books all operate in this space.
Sample contracts:
- Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 by year-end?
- Will the SEC approve a named ETF by a stated deadline?
- Will a specified token reach a given market capitalization?
Culture
This prediction market category covers entertainment, media, and the broader events that define the contemporary moment. Box office openings, awards show results, streaming rankings, album chart positions, and viral milestones all qualify. Resolution timelines tend to be shorter than political or economic contracts, which appeals to traders who want faster feedback.
A Kalshi market on the top-rated Netflix show’s weekly view count generated $153,000 in volume in June 2026. A market on the winning couple from Love Island USA attracted nearly $665,000 in trades. Polymarket listed more than 360 active culture markets as of April 2026.
Sample contracts:
- Will the opening weekend of a specified film exceed $80 million?
- Who will win the Academy Award for Best Actor?
- Will a named album debut at number one on the Billboard charts?
Technology and Science
Tech and science markets cover AI capability milestones, IPO timing, drug approvals, mission outcomes, and major product launches. The first institutional contract at Kalshi was completed in April 2026 and involved a carbon allowances contract that was brokered between a market maker and Texas hedge fund. The platform has since added parternships with Interactive Brokers, Tradeweb, FIS, and Clear Street to manage brokering and clearing for larger marketers.
These developments point toward event contracts categories moving into more sophisticated institutional use cases, including tech and science verticals where information asymmetry between specialists and the broader market is highest.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has called event contracts a “trillion-dollar market” that could grow large enough to compete with traditional exchanges within a few years. AI benchmark markets, IPO timing contracts, and research milestone markets have drawn attention from researchers and venture-adjacent traders who use contract prices as an independent signal on capability and product timelines.
Sample contracts:
- Will a named AI model achieve a specified benchmark before year-end?
- Will a named company complete its IPO by a stated deadline?
- Will a specified drug receive regulatory approval?
Closing
No matter the interest or field of choice, there is seemingly a prediction market category for every type of trader. These markets allow people around the world to weigh in with their own opinions on various outcomes, backed by their own capital.
Beyond the ability to profit from predictions, the industry also serves as a measuring stick that can more finely tune expected outcomes and where the public stands on certain issues and events.
Frequently Asked Questions
What can you trade on prediction markets?
Available categories include sports, politics, elections, weather, economics, crypto, culture, and technology and science. Each contract resolves to a yes-or-no outcome verified against a defined external data source. The range of markets continues to expand as operators add new categories. Kalshi now offers event contracts to users in 140 countries.
Which category has the most trading volume?
Sports trading reached $10.44 billion on Kalshi in May 2026, roughly 60 times the volume of elections that month. On Polymarket, sports topped every weekly category split in 2026 and reached 56.5% of platform volume by June.
Are prediction markets only for elections?
No. Elections drive cyclical volume spikes but represent a minority of total annual activity. Sports, crypto, and weather markets trade throughout the year and generate significant cumulative volume outside election cycles. Sports, politics, and cryptocurrency together have accounted for 91% of global trading volume on Kalshi and 90% on Polymarket since July 2024.
Are prediction market contracts legal in the United States?
Yes. Regulated prediction market operators are licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Both Kalshi and Polymarket hold CFTC authorization for U.S. users. Several states have issued legal challenges arguing that some event contracts are comparable to unlicensed sports betting, and Kalshi has rebutted, claiming its federally regulated exchange does fall under CFTC oversight rather than state gambling regulators. Offshore platforms operating without CFTC licensing are not compliant with U.S. law.
How do prediction market prices work?
Contracts trade between $0.01 and $1. The price reflects the market-implied probability of the stated outcome. A contract at $0.72 implies a 72% probability. You can enter or exit at any time before settlement. Prices adjust continuously as new information arrives and participants revise their positions.
How are prediction markets different from sports betting?
Prediction market contracts are exchange-traded derivatives regulated at the federal level by the CFTC. You trade against other participants and can buy or sell your position before an outcome is determined. Sports betting operates under state-level gaming licenses. You place a wager against the house, and that bet cannot be transferred once placed. For comparison, the total amount wagered through legal sportsbooks in the United States was around $14 billion per month in 2025 on average, a figure that prediction market volumes are now approaching on a monthly basis.
Who trades on prediction markets?
Institutional trading volume on Kalshi has grown 800% over six months, reflecting a shift from purely retail participation. The broader participant base includes retail traders, institutional trading firms, journalists who track contract prices as a sentiment signal, and academic researchers who study market efficiency. Each category tends to attract participants whose expertise is most relevant to that vertical.
How are contracts settled?
Settlement terms are specified in the contract before trading opens. Common settlement sources include NOAA for weather contracts, official election certifications for political and election contracts, league statistics for sports contracts, and federal government data releases for economic contracts.
Sources: Kalshi | Polymarket | CFTC | Pew Research Center | DeFi Rate | CoinDesk | CBS Sports | NOAA