The San Antonio Spurs enter the 2026-27 NBA season as the defending Western Conference champions and have an ascending young core headlined by Victor Wembanyama.
But veteran NBA head coach and ESPN analyst P.J. Carlesimo is giving the edge to the other West superpower heading into the 2026-27 season.
Prediction markets have the Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder neck-and-neck as the Western Conference favorites, but Carlesimo recently gave the edge to his former team during an exclusive interview with NEXTPredict.io.
“If someone said to me, who is the best team in the West? Healthy, it’s OKC,” said Carlesimo, who was the franchise’s head coach in its final season in Seattle and first in Oklahoma City. “I love the Spurs, and a healthy Spurs will be unbelievable. And then if Denver gets close to healthy, shit, the West is absurd.
“You can make a convincing argument for any of those teams, but truth be told, you don’t put up the numbers OKC has put up the last two years, which includes winning a championship, and say they are not the team to beat.”
Kalshi traders give San Antonio a 36% chance of winning the Western Conference, narrowly ahead of Oklahoma City at 35%. The Thunder and Spurs are also tied atop Kalshi’s 2027 NBA championship market at 22%, more than double the 10% chance given to the Philadelphia 76ers, the next-closest team.
Carlesimo expects more improvement from SGA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is fresh off a second consecutive MVP award, but prediction-market traders currently favor Wembanyama to end his run. Kalshi currently gives Wembanyama a 31% chance of winning MVP, compared with 16% for SGA.
When asked if the 28-year-old Gilgeous-Alexander is a finished product at this stage, Carlesimo said he still expects improvement.
“The great players are never a finished product,” Carlesimo said. “Michael (Jordan) was always still improving. Maybe (Gilgeous-Alexander) can become a higher-percentage three-point shooter. I don’t know. I’m the last one to try and critique him. But for sure, he’s not done improving. I’ll be shocked if he’s not a better player three years from now than he is now, which is absurd.”
Carlesimo said Gilgeous-Alexander is cut from the same cloth as all-time greats like Jordan, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
“That’s why they get to where they are,” Carlesimo said. “The young guys would hate to hear from me. I’d say, ‘These guys are the best players in the world and they bust their ass all summer and come back with a better left hand or a better three-point shot, while you fuckers are on the beach having a good time. When you come back, you can’t figure out why they are who they are.
“I don’t know him nearly as well as I knew a Kobe or a Michael or a LeBron, but SGA deserves to be in that category. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t continue to improve.”
Carlesimo: Morant and Lillard will ‘excel’ together
Carlesimo secured his first head coaching job with the Trail Blazers from 1994-97 and still keeps close tabs on the team.
Portland went 42-40 last season and made a blockbuster trade for talented but mercurial guard Ja Morant this offseason. Morant will pair with Damian Lillard in the Portland backcourt, and Carlesimo is confident the pair will mesh.
“I don’t think there’s any question,” Carlesimo said. “Not that Ja is not capable of adjusting, but Dame is such a smart player. Dame will figure it out. Dame will do whatever it takes for the two of them to excel. And Dame will go out of his way to make sure Ja gets back to being Ja.
“Dame’s game is so good and he’s so smart. He will do whatever he needs to do to still be Dame, and yet at the same time, there’s no bad ego there with Dame. He will make sure things work out for Ja.”
Morant was Rookie of the Year and made a pair of All-Star teams within his first four seasons with the Grizzlies, but off-field issues and injuries have hampered him since 2023.
Morant, who is still only 27, missed all but 20 games last year with calf and elbow injuries.
“Some people forget, face of the league is what people were saying at that point,” Carlesimo said. “Not a good player, a spectacular player. You loved to watch him play. I just hope he gets back to what he was, or even close, and plays the way Ja Morant can play.”
Prediction-market traders are more measured on Portland’s outlook. Kalshi currently gives the Trail Blazers a 53% chance of reaching 40 wins and a 34% chance of reaching 45. Portland has just a 3% chance of winning the Northwest Division, compared with 73% for Oklahoma City.
Carlesimo is also bullish about new Trail Blazers coach Micah Nori, who he coached alongside for the Raptors in 2010-11.
“Micah Nori is a really close friend,” Carlesimo said. “We worked together in Toronto for a year. He’s going to do a great job. If they give him the wherewithal, he’s going to surprise people. I’m sure there are a lot of people who aren’t aware how good of a coach he is.”
Warriors still a factor in championship chase
The Golden State Warriors’ dynasty is winding down as Steph Curry and Draymond Green near the twilight of their careers.
Prediction markets give Golden State a 3% chance of winning the West in 2026-27, putting the Warriors outside the top five contenders. Kalshi traders are more optimistic about their postseason prospects, giving Golden State a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
Carlesimo says not to count out the Warriors if they stay healthy.
“I hate to say this is the last big push, because you can make some deals and change some people,” Carlesimo said. “Had they gotten LeBron, everyone would have been talking completely differently. When Jimmy (Butler) gets healthy, when their guys are healthy including Steph and Draymond, it’s still a very good team. A lot of people keep saying, well, the time’s running out. What are they going to do?
“Steph hasn’t lost anything. I don’t want to say Draymond’s lost anything, but OK, you’ve got a couple guys that are veterans. Jimmy, when he’s healthy, is still one of the best players in the league. Steph is one of the best players ever. I don’t think they are as far away (as people think).”
Carlesimo also said not to underestimate general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr.’s willingness to make a significant midseason move if Golden State starts well.
“If they are healthy, they’re good right now, and they are always a player away,” Carlesimo said. “By the middle of the year Mike will figure something out. I’m not good with money, cap, shit like that, but if they have the wherewithal to do something, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Golden State does something (major) and they’re in the mix.”