Israeli police have launched an investigation into a large bet made on Polymarket that accurately predicted a US strike on Iran.
The investigation comes as a result of possible insider knowledge regarding military plans. The bet predicted that the US would strike Iran on 28 February.
The prediction proved accurate, generating a gross profit of around $430,000 for the account holder known as Magamyman.
While there is no confirmation, the moniker appears to contain a direct reference to US President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign.
The case has attracted attention in Israel and the US because of both the scale and timing of the wager.
According to Israeli TV station Channel 12, authorities are investigating to see whether the individual has access to sensitive information or whether the trade’s success was just a coincidence.
The authorities are examining the account holder’s activities and previous bets regarding Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Magamyman’s betting history includes several predictions tied to Israeli military actions involving Iran. In 2024, the account correctly predicted that Israel would launch an attack on Iran on 26 October.
Israeli security officials later indicated that approval for that operation occurred only days before it took place.
The accuracy of that prediction has increased scrutiny of the account’s activity, especially given the potential overlap between military planning and financial speculation.
Polymarket markets cause controversy
Polymarket recently faced further criticism after hosting a market that effectively allowed users to bet on the likelihood of a nuclear strike.
That market was removed less than seven hours after appearing online, following backlash over the ethics of monetising potential nuclear conflict.
Data reported by Israeli financial outlet Globes indicates that roughly $529m in bets were placed across Polymarket markets predicting when the war would begin.
Of that amount, approximately $90m was tied to wagers selecting 28 February as the start date.
Another $42m in wagers predicted a start date of 31 January. These figures highlight the massive scale of speculation around geopolitical developments on prediction platforms.
The Magamyman account also placed a large bet predicting that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power shortly before an Israeli strike killed him during the recent escalation.
It was reported that the amount of money placed on the prediction was $553,000.
The likelihood of these predictions proving correct are raising concerns, especially regarding the possibility of insiders with classified information using these sites to gain financially from military actions.
Magamyman remains hidden, for now
There have been other instances in Israel where authorities have had to deal with connections between prediction market trading and sensitive information.
Recently, there have been arrests of soldiers in Israel who had been placing trades based on secret intelligence they had been privy to while in service.
This has led to an increase in monitoring of betting and trading sites regarding military and diplomatic news.
However, investigators believe several legal and technical mechanisms could reveal the identity behind the Magamyman account.
Polymarket recently established a regulated branch in the US to comply with oversight requirements from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Because of that change, the platform must maintain detailed records and operate internal surveillance systems designed to detect suspicious market activity.
Those surveillance systems may already have flagged the unusually large bet placed shortly before the strike.
Regulators could require the company to provide transaction logs, account data, and related information through subpoenas or court warrants.
Such measures would allow investigators to review wallet addresses, timestamps, and account activity connected to the wager.
Blockchain analysis could reveal Magamyman
Blockchain transactions themselves also create an investigatory trail. To place bets on Polymarket, users typically fund accounts with cryptocurrencies.
These are usually transferred from centralised cryptocurrency exchanges. Most large exchanges require strict Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures to be followed.
The transactions can be linked back to the exchanges and information requested about accounts linked to particular wallets. The technical details can then be used to track down the user.
If the user has not gone to great lengths to conceal their digital footprint, the servers operated by Polymarket may contain information about the IP addresses or devices that were used to access the account.
This information may be requested by the police and is needed to determine which Internet Service Provider was used by the connection.
If Magamyman is assumed to have access to secret military information, then Israeli law on this subject is covered by Shin Bet/the Israel Security Agency and the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing under the Counter Terror Law of 2016.
The Counter Terror Law grants powers to the Defence Minister and security organisations to seize assets and force any group or individual to share information with them.
This is true for any entity, whether domestic or foreign, if it is linked to a threat to national security or illegal financial activity.
This authority often manifests through seizure orders against specific cryptocurrency wallets.
Jurisdiction extends beyond Israeli borders
Once a wallet is formally included in a security investigation, Israeli authorities will be able to apply pressure on exchanges and providers that deal with that wallet to freeze assets and disclose user identities.
However, in August 2025, a change came into force with Amendment 13 to the Protection of Privacy Law.
This change will have extra-territorial application to foreign firms dealing with personal information of Israeli residents and could therefore apply to platforms such as Polymarket if the user is Israeli.
The Israel Police and the Privacy Protection Authority will also be able to ask for digital identification, such as IP and location information, during a criminal investigation.
The laws collectively provide Israel with a robust framework for removing the anonymity of users of state secrets for financial gain.