Kalshi has launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets with Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Underdog, formalising an industry-backed effort to advocate for prediction markets amid growing regulatory and political scrutiny.
The initiative was announced on X by Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour, who positioned the coalition as a counterweight to what he described as entrenched lobbying interests opposing the sector’s expansion.
The coalition’s stated mission is to provide a unified voice for prediction market operators while defending transparency, market integrity, and customer protection standards.
According to Mansour, participation in prediction markets has expanded rapidly, with millions of Americans now engaging either as traders or observers.
He emphasised that these markets are increasingly used by economists, journalists, policymakers, and major news organisations as a source of forecasting data, citing their track record of outperforming traditional opinion polls in many cases.
The timing of the coalition’s formation reflects what its founders characterise as escalating opposition from legacy interests.
Mansour pointed to annualised trading volumes exceeding $150bn as evidence that prediction markets have become a pivotal consumer internet application.
He argued that recent criticism has included misinformation about how prediction markets function and how they are regulated, framing the pushback as economically motivated rather than consumer-focused.
A central theme of the coalition’s advocacy is the distinction between prediction markets and gambling products such as casinos or sportsbooks.
Mansour underscored that prediction markets operate without a house taking the opposite side of trade, with participants trading against each other in open, competitive markets similar to equities or derivatives exchanges.
He also stressed that there is no structural penalty for winning, unlike traditional gambling models.
Rewriting the book on prediction market regulations
The coalition plans to engage directly with policymakers to explain these differences and to promote the case for consistent federal oversight.
Its members argue that prediction markets should be subject to clear, uniform rules comparable to those governing other modern financial markets, rather than a patchwork of state-level gambling regulations.
Gemini was not included in the initial list of coalition members named by Mansour, though its potential inclusion remains an open possibility.
Earlier this week, Gemini announced that it had received a US licence for prediction markets, following an application for a designated contract market licence submitted on 10 March 2020.
That development further signals institutional momentum within the sector.
Regulatory signals from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have also been closely watched by industry participants.
While the agency has not issued a comprehensive policy statement on prediction markets, its recent actions suggest conditional acceptance within existing legal frameworks.
The CFTC has repeatedly acknowledged that certain operators fall within current regulatory limits and has not taken enforcement action against their core activities.
Most recently, on 12 December, the regulator confirmed a no-action position related to swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements for products offered by Polymarket, Gemini, and LedgerX.
This will reinforce perceptions of regulatory tolerance for compliant prediction market platforms.