Kalshi has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past year, cementing itself as the undisputed leader in the sector according to a press release.
The platform recently crossed $1bn in monthly trading volume, surpassing the milestone despite being accessible only to US customers, a restriction that hasn’t hindered its ability to capture the lion’s share of activity worldwide.
According to the company, based on newly released data compiled from publicly available metrics, Kalshi now commands 62.2% of global prediction market volume, a massive leap from the 3.1% share it held just a year ago.
The same trend is evident in transaction numbers, with Kalshi’s share of these climbing from 12.9% to 63.9% in the space of 12 months.
This growth underscores the platform’s ability to scale at pace and its increasing ubiquity across trading categories.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour attributed the success to a steadfast focus on building a product that resonates with users.
He emphasised that the results validate the team’s hard work and commitment, noting that the company’s strategy has been to concentrate on user experience rather than chasing metrics, letting performance naturally follow.
The growth is not confined to a single category but is spread across a variety of markets. Sports, for instance, have become a powerful driver of activity.
On the Sunday of NFL Week 2, Kalshi recorded 588,520 trades in a single day, setting a new record that even surpassed trading activity seen during the 2024 US Election. Financial markets have also contributed significantly.
The September Federal Reserve decision market reached $91m in volume, eclipsing the combined total of the previous five Fed decision markets.
This pattern demonstrates Kalshi’s ability to attract users across both entertainment and economic events, ensuring that its growth is broad-based and resilient.
Kalshi shows interest in decentralisation
With this momentum firmly established, Kalshi is now turning its attention to innovation beyond its centralised platform.
The company recently announced strategic partnerships with Solana and Base, aiming to accelerate on-chain development and strengthen its position relative to rival Polymarket.
The new initiative, unveiled on X, includes the launch of Kalshi Eco, a hub designed to support builders, traders, and creators working on prediction market technologies.
Through this programme, Kalshi is offering grant funding and resources in collaboration with Solana and Base, two blockchain ecosystems recognised for their scalability and suitability for complex decentralised applications.
By drawing on these ecosystems, Kalshi seeks to alleviate existing limitations in prediction market infrastructure and attract a larger user base.
The company’s X announcement made clear that its support extends to both off-chain and on-chain innovation, reinforcing its plan to deepen engagement with developer communities.
This strategy not only positions Kalshi to bridge the gap with Polymarket but also signals a broader ambition to evolve prediction markets through blockchain integration.
Trump-linked lawyer eyes prediction markets return
Kalshi’s expanding dominance and its push into blockchain innovation come at a time when other firms are also attempting to carve out space in the regulated prediction market landscape.
One notable development is the renewed effort by RSBIX, a company controlled by attorney Jeff Ifrah, who has ties to US President Donald Trump.
RSBIX recently confirmed that it has filed an application with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seeking approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). The notice is also on the CFTC’s website.
On its website, the firm outlined ambitions to establish what it describes as the most trusted sports event trading platform in the US.
Central to this plan is a partnership with Matchbook, a UK-licensed betting exchange well known in international markets but currently unavailable in any US jurisdiction.
This is not RSBIX’s first attempt to enter the market. The company previously worked with ErisX, a US-based derivatives exchange later acquired by Cboe (the Chicago Board Options Exchange), to launch NFL-focused futures contracts.
That initiative faced resistance from the CFTC in 2020, which rejected ErisX’s self-certification of the proposed products. The application was eventually withdrawn in 2021, preventing the markets from ever going live.
RSBIX’s latest move suggests the firm is undeterred in pursuing its long-term goal.