With the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks set to face off in the Super Bowl LX this Sunday (8 February) at Levi’s Stadium, conversation off the field is increasingly dominated by the explosive growth of prediction markets.
The NFL has had a litigious and openly hostile relationship with the betting industry in the past.
But it now appears to be in transition from a period of active legal opposition to the growth of the industry to a more “wait and see” approach to the relationship between sports and gambling.
In recent comments leading up to the Big Game, NFL Executive VP Jeff Miller described the prediction market landscape as “innovative” and “dynamic.”
Speaking with Front Office Sports, Miller acknowledged that the league is paying close attention to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
At the same time, he admitted that the future of their regulation remains a significant question mark.
He raised red flags regarding the “integrity of the game” and the lack of traditional safeguards, such as official league data requirements and information-sharing protocols.
These are now standard in legalised sports betting. Despite these concerns, the league now views prediction markets as undeniable tools for fan interaction that have been “good for the league.”
“We’re interested, of course, in watching the marketplace move,” Miller noted, though he emphasised that the NFL is in no rush to “dive in headfirst.”
He added: “There’s no question that we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months, and maybe even years, but our principles are going to remain the same.”
A decisive break from the PASPA era
To understand the significance of this “measured” tone, one must look back to the league’s principles and posture just over a decade ago.
New Jersey’s push to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was never a quiet legal dispute, and the NFL made sure of that.
Between 2012 and 2018, the league positioned itself as the main roadblock, repeatedly taking the state to court to stop sports betting from becoming legal.
Commissioner Roger Goodell warned that legalisation would cause “irreparable harm” to the NFL, arguing it would undermine public trust and cast doubt over the integrity of its games.
The league’s current willingness to even discuss prediction markets as a “dynamic” marketplace stands in stark contrast to that era’s absolute moral and legal opposition.
Super Bowl LX: A record-breaking handle
The stakes for this evolving relationship are higher than ever. According to new projections from the American Gaming Association (AGA), Americans could wager a record $1.76bn on Super Bowl LX through legal channels.
When factoring in international activity, some estimates suggest the total global handle could approach $4bn.
Prediction markets are capturing a significant slice of this momentum.
While the NFL has officially banned these platforms from airing commercials during the broadcast, placing them on a prohibited list alongside tobacco and firearms, the volume on these exchanges is surging.
Kalshi reportedly surpassed three million downloads in January and reported that trading volume on its Super Bowl winner contract has already surpassed $161m, a 450% increase over the previous year.
Polymarket and other decentralised platforms are seeing similar spikes, with users trading not just on the game’s outcome, but on event contracts ranging from the colour of the Gatorade shower to which brands will appear in commercials.
That means the final tally for regulated sportsbooks could be lower than anticipated.
Jordan Bender of Citizens pointed out that sports betting operators representing roughly 99% of the US and Canadian market generated about 780,000 app installs during the NFL divisional round.
This just barely matched last year’s total and only considers regulated sportsbooks, not prediction markets.
Real-money gaming apps finished at the same level, showing no year-over-year movement.
The path forward
The NFL remains “the last in” when it comes to new betting partnerships, a strategy Miller says is intentional to ensure it fully understands the “pros and cons” of the marketplace.
For now, the league is content to watch from the sidelines as prediction markets attempt to navigate a regulatory framework that meets the NFL’s strict standards for integrity.
As the industry matures, the question is no longer if the NFL will acknowledge these markets, but when it will follow the lead of the NHL and MLS in fully embracing them.
Miller concluded in his talk with Front Office Sports: “We’re interested, of course, in watching the marketplace move. But we’re also going to be cautious.”