Kalshi pricing remained worse than sportsbooks in Week 17 of the NFL, according to ongoing analysis by Citizens.
The prediction markets operator offered inferior pricing to established US sportsbooks during the week, according to the analysis which tracked odds across 26 data points for money-line bets and over/under markets.
The analysis comes after DraftKings and FanDuel launched their own prediction markets platforms, with the operators stating the main threat of prediction markets to the established wagering sector comes from states without legalised sports betting.
The research, conducted on 26 December, found that Kalshi’s pre-game odds across NFL games were 8% worse than FanDuel and 6% worse than DraftKings when including transaction fees.
Citizens said it continued to believe that prediction markets do not pose a challenge to major sports betting operators in states where the activity is permitted.
The analysts said: “We maintain our view that betting exchanges do not act as a competitive threat to sports betting profitability for existing operators in the legal sports betting states given the number-one selling point of better pricing is not true, for now.”
Week 17 implied pricing showed FanDuel at 4.42%, compared with 4.39% the previous week.
DraftKings stood at 4.50%, up from 4.40%, whilst Kalshi recorded 4.77%, an improvement from 4.94% the previous week.
Parlay pricing shows wider gap
The analysis noted that both Kalshi’s average over/under and game outcomes pricing improved week on week, while sportsbook pricing marginally worsened.
However, DraftKings Predictions’ pricing was significantly worse than its own sportsbook and Kalshi, with game outcomes at 8% across all offerings compared with 4.28% for its sportsbook.
Kalshi charges a transaction fee for every contract traded on its platform, which averaged $1.62 for 100 contracts in the analysis.
The platform provides more favourable terms for high-volume customers and institutions, who are often not subject to the fee.
For parlay bets, the pricing gap widened further. The implied vig for Kalshi stood at 28%, representing 12% higher pricing compared with DraftKings and 17% higher than FanDuel, without including the transaction fee.