New analysis from Citizens has found pre-game odds on Kalshi were consistently worse than traditional sportsbooks.
Prediction market operator Kalshi offered worse pricing than established sportsbooks DraftKings and FanDuel during the first week of the NFL season, according to new analysis from Citizens JMP Securities.
The research tracked odds and implied vig across NFL games for money line bets and over/under markets, finding Kalshi’s pricing was consistently higher than traditional operators when transaction fees were included.
Citizens analysts said the findings challenged industry assumptions about exchange pricing advantages.
They said: “Despite some in the industry pushing the notion exchanges have better pricing, this is currently not true for the average consumer according to the data we tracked during Week 1 of the NFL season.”
The analysis showed Kalshi’s money line and over/under pricing was 10% and 25% more expensive compared to DraftKings on Friday, and 16% and 23% more expensive compared to FanDuel.
Even when pricing tightened by Sunday kickoff, Kalshi remained 7% more expensive on money lines and 10% higher on over/unders compared to both major sportsbooks.
Kalshi transaction fees drive pricing disadvantage
Citizens attributed the pricing gap to Kalshi’s fee structure, which charges retail customers transaction fees averaging $1.63 for 100 money line contracts and $1.75 for over/under bets.
The company offers more favourable terms to institutional players and market makers to encourage liquidity.
The analysts also noted that cash-out functionality, another potential exchange advantage, was not yet useful on Kalshi as the platform does not offer parlays, the primary use case for early settlement features.
Citizens concluded the findings represented minimal competitive threat to existing operators in legal betting states.